Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Medical Sciences

.: ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Turkey in Between European Union Countries in the New Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak; An Examination of the Doubling Times
Yeni Koronavirüs (COVID-19) Salgınında Türkiye ve Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinin Karşılaştırması; İki Katına Çıkma Sürelerinin İncelenmesi
Robab AHMADIANa, Yeşim UNCUb, İlker ERCANa
aBursa Uludağ University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics, Bursa, TURKEY
bBursa Uludağ University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Family Medicine, Bursa, TURKEY
Turkiye Klinikleri J Med Sci. 2020;40(2):220-7
doi: 10.5336/medsci.2020-75702
Article Language: EN
Full Text
ABSTRACT
 Objective: In December 2019, the new coronavirus (COVID-19), which is identified as a new pneumonia factor, emerged in Wuhan, China's Hubei province. The new coronavirus is rapidly spreading all over the world and considered a pandemic. The first case in Turkey was confirmed on March 10, 2020, and on March 18, 2020, Turkey has reached the 100th case. Material and Methods: In this study, the doubling times of the outbreak in the European Union countries, especially Turkey, were investigated. Moreover, in this context, as South Korea has been extensively testing both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients and implementing effective strategies, the doubling times have increased steadily linearly without any decline. Therefore, the doubling times for European countries have been compared to South Korea. Results: The highest slope in doubling times was achieved in South Korea and Austria. Among the compared countries, Italy, despite its 51st day after its 100th case, has not yet experienced a rapid rise. In Turkey, the doubling time after the 100th case was calculated to be 1.04. Initially, Turkey was ranked as the country with the lowest doubling times between European Union countries, however, at the point reached today (the 34th day after than the 100th case); after Spain, Austria, Switzerland, and South Korea, Turkey ranks fourth by a doubling time of 13.14. Conclusion: Turkey on the 34th day after the 100th case of the outbreak, has made further successful progress more than major European countries. The prolongation of the doubling time in this wise is promising to combat the pandemic successfully.

Keywords: Coronavirus infections; COVID-19; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus; Turkey; European Union
ÖZET
 Amaç: Aralık 2019'da, Çin'in Hubei eyaleti olan Wuhan'da, yeni bir pnömoni etkeni olarak tanımlanan yeni koronavirüs (COVID- 19) ortaya çıktı. Yeni koronavirüs hızla tüm dünyaya yayıldı ve bir salgın olarak kabul edildi. Türkiye'de ilk vaka 10 Mart 2020'de doğrulanmış ve 18 Mart 2020'de 100'üncü vakaya ulaşılmıştır. Gereç ve Yöntemler: Bu çalışmada Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri, özellikle Türkiye'de, salgının iki katına çıkma süreleri incelenmiştir. Ayrıca bu bağlamda, Güney Kore, hem semptomatik hem de asemptomatik hastalara yoğun bir şekilde test yaptığı ve hasta takibi gibi etkili stratejiler uygulaması nedeniyle, iki katına çıkma süreleri herhangi bir düşüş yaşamadan, istikrarlı bir şekilde doğrusal olarak artmıştır. Bu nedenle Avrupa ülkeleri için iki katına çıkma süreleri Güney Kore ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Bulgular: İki katına çıkma sürelerinde en yüksek eğim Güney Kore ve Avusturya'da elde edilmiştir. Karşılaştırılan ülkeler arasında İtalya, 100'üncü vakasından sonra 51'inci gününde henüz hızlı bir yükselme yaşamamıştır. Türkiye ise sabit bir artış ile devam etmektedir. Türkiye'de 100'üncü vakadan sonra ilk iki katına çıkma süresi 1,04 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Başlangıçta Türkiye'de vakaların hızlı artışı ile iki katına çıkma süresi en düşük ülke konumundayken, bugün gelinen noktada (100'üncü vakasından sonra 34'üncü gün) İspanya, Avusturya, İsviçre, Güney Kore'den sonra, 13,14 iki katına çıkma süresi ile dördüncü sıradadır. Sonuç: Türkiye salgının 100'üncü vakasından sonra 34'üncü gününde beş büyük Avrupa ülkesinden daha başarılı ilerlemeler kaydetmiştir. İki katına çıkma sürelerini uzaması pandemi ile mücadelede başarı konusunda umut vaat edicidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Koronavirüs enfeksiyonları; COVID-19; şiddetli akut solunum sendromu koronavirüs; Türkiye; Avrupa Birliği
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30.03.2014

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