Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Biostatistics

.: ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Stepwise Geoadditive Modelling of the Ideal Family Size in Nigeria
Nijerya'da İdeal Aile Büyüklüğünün Aşamalı Jeotoplamsal Modellemesi
Lateef AMUSAa,b, Waheed YAHYAa
aDepartment of Statistics, University of Ilorin, Faculty of Physical Sciences, Ilorin, NIGERIA
bDepartment of Statistics, University of Kwazulu-Natal, School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Durban, SOUTH AFRICA
Turkiye Klinikleri J Biostat. 2019;11(2):123-32
doi: 10.5336/biostatic.2019-66016
Article Language: EN
Full Text
ABSTRACT
 Objective: Family size substantially contributes to an improved child and maternal well-being and economic growth of a nation. In this paper, we aim at determining possible determinants of ideal or preferred family size as desired by married women in Nigeria. Material and Methods: An extracted dataset from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey were analysed using a Bayesian stepwise approach that involves simultaneous selection of variables and smoothing parameters. The model is geo-additive - it allows for geographical variations at a micro level of states, as well as both linear and nonlinear effects of variables to be investigated. Within a Bayesian context, we assigned appropriate priors on all the parameters and functions. Results: Findings reveal that substantial geographical variations in the preference of family size exist across the states. Further, the results from the spatial analysis showed that married women from the Northern states have the desire for more children, as compared to their southern counterparts. Respondent's level of education, type of marital union, sex of household head, age, wealth index, religion, working status, and the number of siblings are significantly associated with their ideal family size. Mother's age at first birth is significantly non-linearly related to the ideal family size. Conclusion: Government and policymakers need to pay attention to findings from this study, as it can help in designing better strategies that will enable the attainment of the Millenium Development Goals that are firmly related to fertility and family sizes.

Keywords: Geoadditive models; Spatial analysis; Stepwise regression; Bayesian inference; Family size
ÖZET
 Amaç: Aile büyüklüğü, gelişmiş bir çocuk ve anne refahına ve bir ulusun ekonomik büyümesine büyük ölçüde katkıda bulunur. Bu makalede Nijerya'da evli kadınlar tarafından istenen ya da tercih edilen aile büyüklüğünün olası etkenlerini belirlemek amaçlanmaktadır. Gereç ve Yöntemler: Nijerya Demografik Sağlık Çalışması 2013'ten elde edilen veri seti düzleştirme parametrelerini ve eşzamanlı değişken seçimini içeren aşamalı Bayes yaklaşımı ile analiz edilmiştir. Model jeotoplamsaldır. Bu modelde değişkenlerin hem lineer hem de lineer olmayan etkilerinin araştırılmasının yanı sıra eyaletler arasında coğrafik varyasyonların mikro düzeyde araştırılmasına olanak sağlamaktadır. Bayesian yapısı içinde tüm parametrelere ve fonksiyonlara uygun önsel değerler atanmıştır. Bulgular: Bulgular eyaletler arasında aile büyüklüğü tercihinde önemli coğrafi değişikliklerin olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca spatial analizden elde edilen sonuçlara göre güneylilerle karşılaştırıldığında kuzeydeki eyaletlerdeki evli kadınlar daha fazla çocuk sahibi olmak istemektedir. Deneğin eğitim düzeyi, evlilik birliği türü, hane reisinin cinsiyeti, yaş, gelir indeksi, din, çalışma durumu ve kardeş sayısı ideal aile büyüklüğü ile anlamlı olarak ilişkili bulunmuştur. Annenin ilk doğumdaki yaşı ideal aile büyüklüğü ile doğrusal olmayan yönde anlamlı olarak ilişkilidir. Sonuç: Aile büyüklüğü ve doğurganlık ile ilişkili olan Bin Yıllık Kalkınma Hedeflerine ulaşılmasını sağlayacak daha iyi stratejiler belirlenmesinde yardımcı olacağı için Hükümet ve politikacılar bu çalışmanın sonuçlarına dikkat etmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Jeotoplamsal modeller; Spatial analiz; Aşamalı regresyon; Bayes yaklaşımı; Aile büyüklüğü
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