Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Biostatistics

.: ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Gender-Specific Modeling of Growth Profiles in Pre-School-Age Children
Okul Öncesi Çocuklarda Cinsiyet-Spesifik Büyüme Profillerinin Modellemesi
Mehmet KOÇAK a,b, Alemayehu WOLDE c,Frances A. TYLAVSKY a
aDepartment of Preventive Medicine, The University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, USA
bRegenerative and Restorative Medicine Research Center (REMER), Istanbul Medipol University, İstanbul, TURKEY
cDepartment of Mathematical Science, The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, USA
Turkiye Klinikleri J Biostat. 2020;12(3):229-41
doi: 10.5336/biostatic.2019-71002
Article Language: EN
Full Text
ABSTRACT
 Objective: In pediatric clinical trials and cohort studies, actual height, weight and head circumference of children at a specific age may be required for certain developmental assessments such as energy expenditure. This necessitates the choice of a growth model with desired characteristics to predict height and weight accurately. Material and Methods: To address this need, we compared Logistic and Gompertz models, which are the two most commonly used growth curve models in child development literature, using different parameterization and in a race and gender specific fashion on actual participant data from the CANDLE study, which is a prospective birth cohort of mother-child dyads in Shelby County, Tennessee, USA. We compared these competitive models and different parameterizations in terms of the size of the residuals as well as prediction standard error, for each anthropometric meas-urement, namely, height, weight, and head circumference. We also assessed the impact of missing data on these models. Results: We have shown that Gompertz model with the first or the second parameter defined with a subject-specific random effect is the best model in terms of prediction accuracy. Although the same Gompertz model fitted on each individual profile without a random effect also has similar prediction accuracy, it has inflated standard error of estimation as expected, thus, not recommended to be used. Conclusion: We conclude that Gompertz model with only the first or the second parameter defined with a random effect performs the best with and without missing data for height, weight, and head circumference growth in the first four years of life.

Keywords: Growth curve; growth models; early child development; first years of life; Gompertz; logistic
ÖZET
 Amaç: Klinik denemelerde ve kohort çalışmalarında, çocuk-ların belli yaştaki boy, kilo ve baş çevresi, enerji harcaması gibi belli gelişim değerlendirmeleri için gerekebilir. Bu durum, boyu ve kiloyu doğru ölçmede istenilen özelliklere sahip büyüme modellerinin seçimini gerektirir. Gereç ve Yöntemler: Bu ihtiyaca cevap vermek için, çocuk gelişimi literatüründe en sıkça kullanılan Logistic ve Gompertz büyüme modellerini farklı parametri-zasyonlarla, ırk ve cinsiyete dayalı olarak, ABD Tennessee Eyaleti, Shelby ilçesinden ''the CANDLE'' çalışması adındaki, anne-çocuk doğum kohortunun verilerini kullanarak karşılaştırdık. Bu birbirine rakip modelleri, farklı parametrizasyonlar altında, her bir antropometrik ölçüm icin (boy, kilo ve baş çevresi), artıkların büyüklüğü ve tahmin standart hatası açısından karşılaştırdık. Ayrıca kayıp gözlemlerin bu modeller üzerindeki etkisini değerlendirdik. Bulgular: Birinci veya ikinci parametresi denek-spesifik rastgele-etki olarak tanımlanan Gompertz modelinin, tahmin doğruluğu açısından en iyi model olduğunu gösterdik. Her bir denek için, rastgele-etki parametresi olmadan kurulan aynı Gompertz modeli de, benzer bir tahmin doğruluğuna sahip olmakla birlikte, beklendiği gibi şişirilmiş standart hata verdiği için, kullanılması tavsiye edilmedi. Sonuç: Sadece birinci veya ikinci parametresi denek-spesifik rastgele-etki olarak tanımlanan Gompertz modelinin, yaşamın ilk dört yılında, boy, kilo ve baş çevresi büyümesi modellemesinde, kayıp gözlem altında bile, en iyi performansı gösterdiği sonucuna vardık.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Büyüme eğrisi; büyüme modelleri; erken çocuk gelişimi; yaşamın ilk yılları; Gompertz; lojistik
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