Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Biostatistics

.: ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Comparison of Prediction Performance of Computer Adaptive Testing with Machine Learning Methods in Response Patterns Suitable for Rasch Model with Simulation Study: A Methodological Research
Rasch Modeline Uygun Yanıt Desenlerinde Bilgisayar Uyarlamalı Test Yöntemi ile Makine Öğrenmesi Yöntemlerinin Tahmin Performanslarının Benzetim Çalışması ile Karşılaştırılması: Metodolojik Araştırma
Emrah Gökay ÖZGÜRa, Beyza DOĞANAY ERDOĞANb
aDepartment of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Kocaeli University Faculty of Medicine, Kocaeli, Türkiye
bDepartment of Biostatistics, Ankara University Faculty of Medicine, Ankara, Türkiye
Turkiye Klinikleri J Biostat. 2022;14(2):55-62
doi: 10.5336/biostatic.2022-88297
Article Language: EN
Full Text
ABSTRACT
Objective: The scales measuring latent variables are used to gain information about the characteristic () levels of individuals. Scales can be investigated with classical methods as well as the Computer Adaptive Testing (CAT) method. In this study, the performance of machine learning algorithms, including Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting Machines (XGBoost), were tested as a new approach to a CAT application with the algorithm routinely used in CAT in simulation data derived from different scenarios from the Rasch model. Material and Methods: In the CAT application, the Rasch model was used as the probabilistic model and the question selection based on the information criterion was used as the question selection criterion. The performances of the methods were compared, based on the average number of items, the square root of the mean squared error (RMSE), the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the average prediction value obtained from these predictions. Results: Different methods become superior to others as category numbers increased. When the number of items was considered, the CART method made good predictions with the least number of items. When RMSE values were analysed, both GBM and XGBoost methods had low RMSE values. The methods compared have a good ICC value in estimating total scores. Conclusion: As a result of general comparisons, we recommend that a person planning a new study use machine learning methods which are frequently used in different fields recently as an alternative to the CAT method in accordance with its purpose.

Keywords: Computerized adaptive testing; machine learning; Rasch; scale
ÖZET
Amaç: Örtük (latent) değişkenlerin değerlendirilmesinde kullanılan ölçekler, bireylerin () düzeyleri hakkında bilgi sahibi olmak için kullanılır. Ölçekler, klasik kalem-kâğıt uygulaması yanı sıra Bilgisayar Uyarlamalı Test (BUT) yöntemi ile de uygulanabilir. Bu çalışmada, BUT uygulamasında rutin olarak kullanılan algoritma ile BUT uygulamasına yeni bir yaklaşım olarak makine öğrenmesi algoritmalarının Sınıflandırma ve Regresyon Ağacı [Classification and Regression Tree (CART)], Rastgele Orman [Random Forest (RF)], Gradyan Artırma Makineleri [Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM)] ve Ekstrem Gradyan Artırma [Extreme Gradient Boosting Machines (XGBoost)] Rasch modelinden farklı senaryolardan türetilen bir simülasyon verisinde performansları incelenmiştir. Gereç ve Yöntemler: BUT algoritmasında olasılıksal model olarak Rasch modeli ve soru seçim kriteri olarak da bilgi kriterine dayalı soru seçimi kullanılmıştır. Bununla birlikte yöntemlerin performansları, ortalama madde sayısı, hata kareler ortalamasının karekökü [root mean square error (RMSE)], sınıf içi korelasyon katsayısı (SKK) ve bu tahminlerden elde edilen ortalama tahmin değerine göre karşılaştırılmıştır. Bulgular: Her parametre için farklı yöntemler diğerlerinden üstün sonuçlar ortaya çıkarmıştır. Madde sayısı dikkate alındığında, CART yönteminin en az madde ile tahminde bulunduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. RMSE değerleri incelendiğinde, GBM ve XGBoost yöntemlerinden elde edilen değerlerin düşük olduğu görülmektedir. Karşılaştırılan yöntemler, toplam puanları tahmin etmede iyi bir SKK değerine sahiptir. Sonuç: Günümüzde farklı alanlarda sıklıkla kullanılan makine öğrenme yöntemlerinin genel karşılaştırmalar sonucunda yeni bir çalışma planlayan kişinin amacına uygun olarak BUT yöntemine alternatif olarak kullanılabileceği görülmekte ve önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Bilgisayar uyarlamalı test; makine öğrenmesi; Rasch; ölçek
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