Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Medical Sciences

.: ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?
Türkiye'deki 2019 Yeni Koronavirüs Vakalarının İstatistiksel Bakış Açısı ile Analizi: Süreç Nasıl Gidiyor?
Özlem TOLUKa,b, Burcu DİNÇGEZ ÇAKMAKa,c, İlker ERCANd, Yeşim UNCUe
aBursa Uludağ University Institute of Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, Bursa, TURKEY
bBezmialem Vakif University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, İstanbul, TURKEY
cBursa Yüksek İhtisas Research and Training Hospital, University of Health Sciences, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Bursa, TURKEY
dBursa Uludağ University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics, Bursa, TURKEY
eBursa Uludağ University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Family Practice, Bursa, TURKEY
Turkiye Klinikleri J Med Sci. 2020;40(2):228-35
doi: 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
Article Language: EN
Full Text
ABSTRACT
 Objective: There is only limited data about 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) outbreak from Turkey. Here, we aimed to analyse 2019-nCov cases in Turkey from statistical perspective. Material and Methods: Data were obtained from Republic of Turkey Ministery of Health website. The statistical modeling was performed for tests between 27 March and 18 April. The ratios were computed for according to test numbers, number of cases, number of patients in intensive care care, deaths for statistical analysis. An association between related ratios and time was analyzed by using curve estimation approach. Curves were drawn with 95% confidence interval. Results: The ratio of number of cases/number of tests were increased until 7 April and then decreased while the ratio of daily recovered cases/number of daily cases were decreased until that date and then increased. The ratio of deaths/number of cases were increased rapidly initially whereas it later increased more slowly. Although the ratio of number of intubated cases/number of cases and the ratio of number of cases in intensive care unit/number of cases have tendency to decrease in same rate, the ratio of number of deaths/number of cases in intensive care unit has tendency to increase from the beginning of pandemia until this date. Conclusion: The increasing trend of recovered cases, decreasing of deaths, requirement of intensive care unit and intubation are the main satisfactions for Turkey. The statistical modeling used here could shed some light on the control of process. While more cases than modeling estimate can show uncontrolled process, less cases could indicate well-controlled process.

Keywords: Coronavirus; outbreak; statistical perspective; Turkey
ÖZET
 Amaç: Dünyada salgın oluşturan 2019-yeni koronavirüse (2019-nCov) ilişkin Türkiye'den kısıtlı veri mevcuttur. Bu çalışmadaki amacımız ülkemizdeki olguların istatistiksel yönden analizidir. Gereç ve Yöntemler: Veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Sağlık Bakanlığı'nın internet sitesinden alınarak, 27 Mart ve 18 Nisan arasındaki testler için istatistiksel modelleme yapıldı. Test sayılarına, vaka sayılarına, yoğun bakımdaki hasta sayısına ve ölüm sayısına göre istatistiksel analizler yapılarak oranlar hesaplandı. İlişkili oranlar ve zaman arasındaki ilişki eğri tahmin yaklaşımı ile değerlendirildi. Eğriler %95 güven aralığı ile çizildi. Bulgular: Vaka/test oranının 7 Nisan'a kadar artış gösterip sonra azaldığı, günlük iyileşen hasta sayısı/günlük vaka sayısı oranının önce azalıp, o tarihten sonra arttığı bulundu. Ölüm/vaka oranının başlangıçta hızlı bir artış hızı gösterirken daha sonra yavaş bir artış hızına ulaştığı saptandı. Pandemi başlangıcından son analiz tarihine kadar entübe vaka/vaka sayısı ile yoğun bakımdaki vaka/vaka sayısı oranlarında aynı hızda bir azalma mevcut olmasına rağmen, ölüm/yoğun bakımdaki vaka oranında aynı hızda artış mevcuttu. Sonuç: İyileşen vakaların artış, ölümlerin, yoğun bakım ünitesindeki vakaların ve entübe hastaların azalma eğiliminde olması Türkiye için olumlu bir gelişme olarak görülebilir. Burada kullanılan istatistiksel modelleme sürecin kontrolüne ışık tutabilir. İlerleyen günlerde, modelin tahmin ettiğinden çok vaka saptanması sürecin kontrol altında olmadığını gösterirken, tahminden daha az vaka olması sürecin kontrol altında olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Koronavirüs; salgın; istatistiksel yaklaşım; Türkiye
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